The projected population for Puerto Rico for the year 2002 reflects an increase of 10.5 percent with respect to the year 1990. In the year 2001 it has been foreseen that the population may reach approximately the amount of 3,865,296, reflecting a 9.7 percent growth with respect to the population level in the year 1990. In the 1980-90 decade, the population density reflected an increase of 10.2 percent. In the year 2001 it is foreseen that the population density will be around 1,128 habitants per square mile, which depicts a 9.7 percent growth compared to the year 1990.

According to the statistics of passenger traffic reported by the Puerto Rico Planning Board Economic Analysis Bureau, in the 1994 fiscal year a net positive migratory balance of 26,853 was reflected. This positive data may indicate that the immigration current surpassed the emigration and the balance of the 1993 fiscal year, which was a positive 4,945. These positive balances may have added to the acceleration of the population growth with respect to the 1993 fiscal year. On the other hand, for fiscal year 1995 a net negative migratory balance of (1,326), and negative (19,494) for fiscal year 1996 was reflected. These negative data may indicate emigration. For 1997 fiscal year, the net migratory balance was positive 39,143, which may indicate immigration. For 1999 fiscal year, the net migratory balance preliminary data is positive 22,508 which may indicate immigration.

In the year 1996, 63,259 live births were registered in Puerto Rico at a rate of 17.0 newborns per 1,000 habitants. According to the data purveyed by the Department of Health, we observe that the index, as well as the birth rate, is dropping as time goes by. This could be due to the increase in use of birth control methods as well as the access to such.

BIRTH RATE INDEX IN PUERTO RICO

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

The age median of the population in the year 1990 was of 28.4; this depicted an increase of 15.4% compared to the age median of 24.6 in the year 1980. It is foreseen that the age median for the year 2000 will be 30.6, for the year 2001 will be 30.9 and for the year 2002 will be 31.2. These projections indicate that the population in Puerto Rico is moving in its age structure to more adult stages. However, it preserves much younger than the national population whose age median was at 32.8 in the year 1990, but older than the Puerto Rican continental residents, whose median was 25.5 in the year 1990.

The population in the less than 15 years of age groups is projected at 941,389 for the year 2000, a 24.5 percent of the total. The 16 to 24 years of age group has been projected that will constitute the 16.7% of the population, or 641,475 in the year 2000.

The population in the less than 15 years of age groups is projected at 945,223 or 24.5 percent of the total for the year 2001. The 16 to 24 years of age group has been projected that will constitute the 16.4% of the population, or 632,024 in the year 2001.

It is expected that the population of 65 years and older may experience a growing trend, in a way that, for the 2000 and 2005 this group may represent the 10.6 and 11.2 percent respectively of the population, however, it will be less than the portion of the population of the same age in the nation.

Source: Puerto Rico Planing Board, 1999

The composition within the aging population has changed significantly. It is expected that the number of people between the ages of 65 to 74 increases to a 5.8% and the group of over 75 depict a 4.7% of the population in the year 2000.

For the year 2001,it is expected that the number of people between the ages of 65 to 74 increases to a 5.9% and the group of people over 75 will constitute the 4.8% of the population.

The registered deaths in 1996 were of 29,871 a decrease of 1.1 percent with respect to the previous year. The gross mortality rate was calculated at 8.0 deaths per each 1,000 habitants.

The number of deaths in 1960 reflected a decrease of a 27.7% in comparison to the year 1950. This decrease could be due to three elements: (1) the advances in medicine for the control of infectious and parasitic diseases, (2) social economic changes as a result of better life conditions in Puerto Rico, making people less vulnerable to diseases, (3) public health preventive measures. However, an increase in the number of deaths as of 1970 until 1993 can be depicted. An increase of 27.6% is depicted in the number of deaths in 1990 compared to 1980 and a 9% in 1993 compared to 1990. These significant increases during the last two decades could be due to deaths related to chronic diseases, the Acquired Inmunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), and the increase in criminal action. It reflects an increase of 6.2% in 1995 compared to 1994, which could because by the previous reasons.

From 1960 until 1980, the general mortality rate has kept relatively stationary, which could be due to the aging of the population in Puerto Rico, partaken by the health science advances. The increase depicted in the Gross Mortality Rate in the years 1990, 1993 and 1995 compared with the years 1960 to 1980 could be due to the high criminal incidence and deaths related to AIDS and chronic diseases. However, in 1994, we depict that the gross mortality rate has a decrease with little significance compared to 1993.

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

A possible cause for this drop in the life expectancy of males are the diseases that have increased deaths, among them, the Acquired Inmunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) stands out. The social economic effects of this disease have a great impact in all levels of life. Puerto Rico occupies third place in the United States with the largest rate of AIDS cases with 62.5 cases per 100,000 habitants in 1994.

By December, 1995, Puerto Rico occupied second place with a 70.3 cases per 100,000 habitants rate, reflecting an increase of 7.8 in comparison to the previous year.

Source: The Department of Health, 2000

The data provided by the Department of Health about the distribution of cases of AIDS until December 31, 1999 indicate that the male group represent a 77.3%, of the total cases in Puerto Rico, and 22.7% the female group.

Source: The Department of Health, 1999

We can depict that the life expectancy at birth for both sexes has been increasing since the 1950 decade until the year 1990. However, a slight decrease of 0.1% is depicted in 1991 compared to 1990. We can also depict a decrease of 0.3 % in 1994 compared to 1993. The life expectancy at birth figures for males reported here showed a continuous decrease from the 1980 decade through the year 1994, while the data for females showed increase in the years mentioned above excluding the year 1994 and 1993.

If we compare the life expectancy for the total population in 1950 with the one in 1990, we find that it has increased by 21.7%

The estimated net income per capita in 1998 was of $7,314; this reflected an increase of a 3.9% compared to 1997. It is expected for the economy to continue its ascending curse reflecting a vigorous growth. The estimated average family income in 1998 was $30,860 at current prices, which portrayed an increase of 5.3 percent over 1996.

Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board, 1999

The dependency ratio for Puerto Rico in 1990 was 0.546, while at the national level it was only 0.336. It is projected that for the year 2000 it will decrease to 0.541 in Puerto Rico while at the national level it will decrease to 0.318.

The economic development of a jurisdiction depends in great measure from the quantitative and qualitative potential of its work force and the elements that promote a greater participation in it. The civil non-institutional population (16 years of age and over) estimated for the 1997-98 fiscal year approximately reach 2,740,000, which portrays a 1.2 percent increase with respect to the previous year. If we compare the 1970 civil non-institutional work group to the 1998 projected one, we find that it will have increased approximately a 72.7 percent.

Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board, and the Department of Labor, 1999

According to noted historical trends it is estimated that the labor force for the 1998 fiscal year reached approximately 1,317,000 and it is expected that it will decrease to 1,310,000 in 1999, or a 0.5 percent reduction. It must be pointed out that the participating rate was reduced from a 46.9 percent in 1993 to a 46.1 percent in 1994. For the 1998 fiscal year, the participation rate was estimated in 48.1, and for 1999 fiscal year it is projected to reach 47.1.

Finally, the demographic changes experienced in Puerto Rico during the last years suggest that it is necessary to reassess the planning of production resources. The current analysis suggests that the interaction of the vital outcomes showed an increase in our population. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative labor force changes in Puerto Rico will require the reassessment of the employment offer and demand projection.